Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -1.7% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +3.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -2.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.87% | 5.16% | 1.61% | 0.50% | 0.51% | 4.34% | 0.55% | -7.21% | -2.14% | 0.93% | ||
| 2025 | 4.14% | 4.78% | 4.75% | 2.38% | 2.58% | -0.84% | 4.30% | 1.67% | 2.08% | 0.96% | 1.71% | -0.27% |
| 2024 | -4.14% | 0.19% | 0.15% | -1.08% | 2.22% | -3.81% | 9.18% | 3.31% | 5.00% | 0.07% | 2.98% | 0.58% |
| 2023 | 3.70% | 2.02% | 2.72% | 5.07% | -2.91% | -2.52% | -0.70% | -5.31% | -6.38% | -2.71% | 5.00% | 5.47% |
| 2022 | -3.67% | -1.54% | 4.50% | 1.14% | 1.35% | -4.09% | 1.78% | 0.10% | -8.03% | -8.44% | 3.72% | -1.18% |
| 2021 | -1.16% | -5.10% | 11.55% | 1.04% | 0.75% | -0.09% | 4.61% | 2.35% | -3.69% | 1.54% | 1.93% | 7.72% |
| 2020 | -4.07% | -1.87% | 0.92% | -1.21% | -2.41% | 5.52% | -4.48% | 2.72% | -1.70% | 1.32% | 0.46% | |
| Avg | -0.04% | 0.21% | 3.34% | 1.42% | 0.47% | -1.35% | 3.60% | -1.37% | -1.49% | -1.71% | 2.78% | 2.13% |
EMA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EMA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EMA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EMA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes