Seasonality
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Seasonality
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ELVA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +18.3% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -6.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +26.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -46.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.78% | -29.71% | 5.74% | 15.93% | 27.56% | -7.16% | -22.54% | -20.43% | 1.20% | -22.04% | ||
| 2025 | 3.41% | -14.84% | 8.06% | 8.96% | 16.16% | 9.67% | 43.23% | 25.53% | -1.91% | 10.61% | -28.00% | 66.00% |
| 2024 | 17.78% | 15.30% | -10.55% | -12.80% | -9.56% | -9.28% | -4.26% | -18.99% | 15.75% | -9.81% | 28.07% | -3.56% |
| 2023 | 22.00% | -8.20% | -8.04% | -0.97% | -4.90% | -1.03% | 20.42% | -24.39% | -14.19% | -1.07% | -4.04% | 13.76% |
| 2022 | -20.43% | 0.00% | 25.68% | -12.90% | -22.22% | 26.98% | 12.50% | 16.67% | -6.67% | -5.10% | 23.66% | -13.04% |
| 2021 | 26.85% | 3.17% | -9.23% | -10.17% | -5.66% | -8.00% | -22.46% | -19.63% | 50.00% | -5.43% | -9.84% | -15.45% |
| 2020 | -13.04% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 13.64% | 12.00% | 92.86% | 12.96% | 47.54% | -4.44% | 100.00% | -13.37% | |
| Avg | 14.06% | -6.76% | 1.67% | -0.28% | 2.15% | 3.31% | 17.11% | -4.04% | 13.10% | -2.54% | 18.31% | 5.72% |
ELVA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ELVA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ELVA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes