Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +9.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -2.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +14.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.04% | 5.35% | -18.19% | -11.95% | 6.29% | 1.61% | -12.15% | 36.13% | -8.00% | -19.81% | ||
| 2025 | 1.74% | 6.84% | 3.20% | 14.73% | -2.03% | 30.34% | 3.70% | 3.57% | 23.35% | -15.42% | -5.24% | 15.74% |
| 2024 | -0.91% | -5.50% | 12.62% | 1.72% | -2.54% | -4.35% | 0.00% | -4.55% | 14.29% | 5.83% | -9.45% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | -3.05% | 2.36% | 5.38% | 0.73% | -13.04% | -2.50% | 7.69% | -5.56% | -1.68% | -1.71% | -4.35% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | 2.41% | -5.29% | -4.97% | -3.92% | -4.76% | -10.00% | -4.76% | -0.83% | 4.20% | 3.23% | -3.91% | 6.50% |
| 2021 | -8.98% | -4.61% | 0.00% | -0.69% | 0.69% | -8.97% | 2.27% | -2.22% | 1.52% | 2.24% | -2.19% | 23.88% |
| 2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 67.46% | -4.00% | -19.05% | 6.62% | 17.24% | -1.76% | |
| Avg | 3.71% | -0.12% | -0.28% | 0.09% | -2.20% | 0.88% | 9.17% | 3.22% | 2.09% | 0.13% | -1.32% | 7.39% |
ELE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ELE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ELE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ELE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes