Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +21.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.43% | 8.62% | -24.59% | -12.14% | 10.98% | -5.02% | -4.15% | 46.73% | -11.58% | -19.12% | ||
| 2025 | 3.46% | -9.99% | 21.50% | 7.23% | 6.75% | 0.11% | 2.42% | 19.94% | 18.03% | -10.55% | 22.17% | 12.32% |
| 2024 | -4.48% | -14.12% | 34.94% | 3.05% | 12.33% | -8.30% | 15.83% | -0.60% | 1.03% | 3.02% | -7.64% | -4.43% |
| 2023 | 12.84% | 0.08% | 9.80% | 6.93% | -14.36% | 4.60% | -3.58% | -0.15% | -6.12% | 23.76% | 18.73% | -3.42% |
| 2022 | -6.16% | 25.07% | 0.57% | -10.86% | -18.75% | -19.03% | -4.14% | -8.01% | 15.33% | -8.86% | 35.48% | 9.51% |
| 2021 | -14.94% | -7.11% | 1.88% | -10.60% | 17.87% | -13.98% | -5.28% | -5.15% | -11.39% | 12.96% | 3.79% | 3.22% |
| 2020 | 21.10% | -24.89% | 51.66% | -12.66% | 12.94% | 28.57% | -11.47% | -5.70% | 18.86% | -8.68% | 10.62% | |
| Avg | 1.53% | 3.38% | 2.74% | 5.04% | 0.31% | -4.10% | 4.24% | 5.90% | -0.06% | 6.53% | 10.64% | 4.64% |
ELD.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ELD.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ELD.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ELD.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes