Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
EFR.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EFR.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +11.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -7.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +28.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -59.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.17% | -4.33% | -12.43% | 15.09% | -14.44% | -17.99% | -22.04% | 27.15% | -22.97% | -32.93% | ||
| 2025 | 3.79% | -22.69% | -10.12% | 17.64% | 7.18% | 17.11% | 59.72% | 26.25% | 34.66% | 34.77% | -29.76% | -1.73% |
| 2024 | 7.37% | -15.49% | -1.74% | -15.82% | 32.68% | -12.37% | -4.58% | -17.19% | 13.44% | 13.19% | 21.17% | -27.48% |
| 2023 | 17.06% | -6.32% | -17.95% | 2.12% | 3.51% | 3.26% | 2.67% | 13.96% | 15.89% | -0.63% | -2.71% | -11.96% |
| 2022 | -18.63% | 32.70% | 10.35% | -15.90% | -16.12% | -21.92% | 35.49% | 24.21% | -20.99% | 16.84% | -4.87% | -10.57% |
| 2021 | -9.63% | 35.86% | 7.99% | -5.73% | 16.15% | -4.46% | -12.82% | 4.59% | 29.72% | 10.16% | 15.37% | -14.21% |
| 2020 | -13.16% | 0.00% | 49.70% | -3.64% | -14.29% | 12.25% | 3.93% | -6.72% | -9.91% | 35.00% | 100.00% | |
| Avg | 8.85% | 0.94% | -3.41% | 6.73% | 3.62% | -7.24% | 10.10% | 11.84% | 6.15% | 10.74% | 5.70% | 5.68% |
EFR.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EFR.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes