Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.5% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +11.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -55.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.30% | -5.83% | -6.67% | 7.49% | -15.29% | 7.10% | 7.48% | -16.24% | -13.47% | -5.30% | ||
| 2025 | -1.75% | 1.37% | -0.69% | 5.52% | 8.31% | 4.71% | 5.66% | 1.55% | -1.17% | 4.97% | -1.59% | -2.82% |
| 2024 | 5.19% | -0.13% | -2.82% | 0.37% | 10.24% | 3.27% | 6.11% | 5.83% | 3.33% | -0.94% | 4.25% | -1.72% |
| 2023 | 1.90% | 3.67% | -8.40% | -0.17% | 16.20% | -1.50% | 5.40% | -2.35% | -5.67% | -3.75% | 16.52% | -0.81% |
| 2022 | 0.54% | -3.94% | -2.11% | -5.21% | 22.84% | -4.19% | 9.54% | 12.52% | -0.97% | 11.35% | 5.01% | -2.67% |
| 2021 | -11.21% | 5.05% | 10.70% | 9.45% | -8.97% | 6.03% | -1.24% | -2.59% | -7.65% | 5.24% | -8.40% | 5.18% |
| 2020 | -1.18% | -28.30% | 14.62% | -4.67% | 3.96% | 10.96% | -4.54% | 3.68% | 13.27% | 5.26% | 1.78% | |
| Avg | -1.60% | -0.14% | -5.47% | 4.58% | 4.09% | 2.77% | 6.27% | -0.83% | -3.13% | 5.02% | 3.51% | -0.18% |
EFN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EFN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EFN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EFN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes