Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +9.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -7.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +9.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.18% | 32.03% | -13.85% | -6.22% | 10.44% | -17.69% | -6.71% | 29.21% | -4.95% | -10.37% | ||
| 2025 | 14.74% | -4.08% | 23.79% | 8.01% | 12.64% | -0.19% | -0.93% | 14.78% | 24.30% | -3.88% | 14.20% | 10.14% |
| 2024 | -21.77% | -1.81% | 23.35% | 4.54% | 2.85% | -2.33% | 5.12% | -6.48% | 15.22% | -4.08% | -9.60% | -6.53% |
| 2023 | 8.18% | -7.60% | 14.68% | 7.09% | 2.58% | -11.26% | 0.35% | -10.57% | -4.76% | 6.57% | 12.20% | -6.47% |
| 2022 | 2.13% | 19.61% | -7.38% | 1.39% | -7.41% | -8.52% | -5.14% | 1.19% | 1.78% | -4.91% | 17.83% | 1.51% |
| 2021 | -6.74% | -9.76% | 3.35% | 1.03% | 13.95% | -8.71% | 11.61% | 3.77% | -6.44% | 10.28% | -4.68% | -7.47% |
| 2020 | -12.55% | -15.57% | 25.24% | 32.40% | -0.99% | 9.86% | 0.19% | -8.32% | -1.42% | -6.27% | -3.30% | |
| Avg | 0.29% | 2.26% | 4.05% | 5.87% | 9.64% | -7.10% | 2.02% | 4.59% | 2.40% | 0.43% | 3.95% | -2.02% |
EDV.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EDV.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EDV.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EDV.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes