Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +6.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -1.4% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +12.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -22.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
DOL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DOL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.50% | 9.44% | -14.98% | 1.75% | 1.56% | 6.42% | 1.85% | -8.33% | 5.10% | 12.82% | ||
| 2025 | -1.90% | 9.67% | 2.02% | 10.61% | 3.76% | 8.71% | -1.24% | -1.12% | -1.99% | -0.61% | 9.68% | 2.60% |
| 2024 | 3.41% | 6.40% | -1.71% | 11.38% | 12.33% | -3.17% | 3.69% | 5.46% | 1.49% | 4.65% | 0.66% | -3.81% |
| 2023 | 0.55% | -0.94% | 2.47% | 3.99% | -1.60% | 8.65% | -3.11% | 0.86% | 6.81% | 1.27% | 4.07% | -3.10% |
| 2022 | 3.68% | -0.14% | 8.24% | 0.81% | 2.72% | 1.04% | 4.79% | 3.05% | -0.85% | 2.15% | 1.70% | -3.81% |
| 2021 | -3.56% | -3.12% | 14.64% | 3.26% | -8.35% | 8.08% | 3.63% | -2.08% | -4.50% | 1.91% | -1.36% | 14.73% |
| 2020 | -12.49% | -1.06% | 11.95% | 6.92% | -3.26% | 8.56% | 3.96% | 0.24% | -10.03% | 15.87% | -2.41% | |
| Avg | -1.39% | 1.26% | 1.38% | 6.25% | 2.48% | 3.78% | 2.60% | 0.26% | 0.90% | -0.11% | 5.10% | 0.70% |
DOL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DOL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes