Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +13.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +18.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +14.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -34.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.80% | 5.58% | -13.20% | 5.48% | -7.50% | -9.56% | -9.20% | 19.24% | -21.66% | -16.26% | ||
| 2025 | 1.92% | -19.17% | -12.56% | 5.32% | 8.59% | 15.81% | 14.46% | 10.88% | 21.20% | 16.71% | -19.46% | 1.11% |
| 2024 | 16.38% | -9.63% | 8.61% | 3.40% | 20.07% | -16.72% | -0.73% | -18.01% | 10.31% | 19.11% | 15.02% | -22.55% |
| 2023 | 23.23% | -9.95% | -14.53% | 1.36% | -2.68% | 14.48% | 3.61% | 10.47% | 17.37% | -0.45% | 10.36% | -5.31% |
| 2022 | -11.49% | 23.38% | 7.37% | -18.63% | -4.82% | -19.62% | 20.47% | 21.57% | -13.44% | 6.83% | -3.49% | -6.63% |
| 2021 | 1.19% | 60.00% | 0.74% | -3.65% | 18.18% | -3.21% | -10.60% | 19.26% | 14.29% | 14.13% | -2.38% | -15.12% |
| 2020 | 8.70% | -26.00% | 62.16% | -3.33% | -17.24% | 29.17% | 12.90% | -20.00% | -16.07% | 0.00% | 78.72% | |
| Avg | 13.17% | 8.41% | -7.08% | 7.92% | 4.07% | -5.15% | 6.74% | 10.90% | 1.15% | 6.71% | 0.01% | 5.04% |
DML.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DML.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DML.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DML.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes