Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +3.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -2.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +4.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.68% | 0.00% | 4.83% | 4.32% | -3.45% | 3.70% | 1.19% | 0.14% | 1.75% | 2.96% | ||
| 2025 | -2.79% | -1.56% | 0.45% | 0.45% | 0.30% | 1.14% | -2.33% | 2.16% | 4.28% | -4.18% | 1.68% | 2.86% |
| 2024 | 3.67% | 4.69% | 20.17% | -1.36% | 4.47% | -2.32% | 0.00% | 1.64% | 0.29% | -0.64% | 2.07% | -0.14% |
| 2023 | 5.38% | 6.01% | -2.37% | -3.71% | 1.21% | -8.98% | -3.10% | 7.61% | -8.02% | 0.09% | -1.44% | -3.11% |
| 2022 | 2.33% | -1.19% | 0.93% | -0.86% | 1.18% | -1.33% | 1.35% | 0.83% | 0.27% | -1.27% | -1.17% | -10.03% |
| 2021 | -2.31% | 6.37% | -0.99% | 0.67% | -3.46% | 1.74% | 0.48% | 3.04% | -0.60% | -1.21% | 4.20% | -1.06% |
| 2020 | 6.22% | -15.23% | 8.00% | -2.68% | 8.11% | -6.19% | 7.14% | -10.06% | -0.21% | 8.04% | -3.22% | |
| Avg | 0.77% | 2.93% | 1.11% | 1.07% | -0.35% | 0.29% | -1.23% | 3.22% | -1.73% | -1.24% | 2.23% | -2.45% |
CUP-U.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CUP-U.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CUP-U.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
CUP-U.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data