Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.67% | 14.21% | -2.22% | 1.95% | -6.36% | 10.43% | 5.65% | -8.20% | 2.74% | 6.02% | ||
| 2025 | 9.37% | -12.77% | 4.70% | 2.15% | 15.58% | 6.31% | 1.06% | -7.72% | -3.26% | -1.85% | 5.70% | 2.31% |
| 2024 | 2.76% | -3.36% | -2.17% | -0.28% | 2.29% | -0.22% | 5.74% | 8.37% | 5.50% | -7.52% | 4.18% | -2.04% |
| 2023 | 13.01% | 7.52% | 3.69% | 1.67% | -8.19% | 11.08% | 0.93% | -11.49% | -8.89% | -7.24% | 5.52% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | 1.90% | 1.82% | 1.01% | -5.56% | -1.79% | -6.55% | 2.32% | -6.10% | -4.80% | 4.95% | -0.23% | -7.12% |
| 2021 | -0.21% | -0.83% | 8.45% | 10.52% | 4.31% | -4.01% | -1.55% | 0.03% | -7.69% | -0.16% | -3.95% | 7.46% |
| 2020 | -7.00% | -35.65% | 16.29% | 20.43% | 0.02% | 5.95% | 10.49% | -1.71% | 11.78% | 11.55% | 0.82% | |
| Avg | 4.03% | -0.06% | -3.17% | 3.82% | 3.75% | 2.44% | 2.87% | -2.09% | -2.59% | -0.01% | 3.80% | 0.19% |
CTC-A.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CTC-A.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +4.0% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.2% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
CTC-A.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CTC-A.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes