Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +17.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.8% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +22.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -39.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.51% | -6.49% | -25.66% | 7.91% | 32.60% | -13.19% | 2.15% | 20.81% | -12.25% | -20.69% | ||
| 2025 | -8.44% | -1.84% | -7.26% | -10.39% | 12.05% | 12.37% | -7.06% | 26.38% | 20.37% | 5.92% | -0.88% | 11.04% |
| 2024 | 2.64% | 7.55% | 21.07% | 10.56% | 0.73% | 1.04% | -4.33% | 4.20% | 9.31% | -8.89% | 0.52% | -8.16% |
| 2023 | 32.19% | -7.04% | 0.49% | 4.43% | -15.86% | 12.13% | 14.64% | -8.71% | -8.43% | -18.06% | 17.80% | 16.01% |
| 2022 | -3.05% | 21.44% | 7.61% | -17.26% | -18.12% | -32.15% | -11.08% | 2.08% | 10.51% | -3.07% | 48.73% | 5.11% |
| 2021 | 11.34% | 46.04% | 6.98% | 32.61% | -0.73% | -1.28% | 3.90% | -0.72% | -11.17% | 5.27% | 20.81% | -11.00% |
| 2020 | -9.86% | -29.69% | 20.00% | 22.22% | 25.76% | 27.71% | 22.64% | 11.54% | 15.17% | 17.96% | 20.81% | |
| Avg | 7.37% | 7.11% | -3.78% | 6.84% | 4.70% | 0.67% | 3.71% | 9.53% | 2.84% | -0.61% | 17.49% | 5.63% |
CS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes