Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +4.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -2.7% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +9.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.05% | 7.16% | 4.01% | -1.37% | 8.69% | 5.62% | -10.88% | -3.10% | -2.86% | -0.55% | ||
| 2025 | -16.48% | -4.66% | -4.46% | 9.43% | 5.14% | 0.76% | 5.99% | -1.39% | 15.33% | 8.65% | -13.62% | -3.40% |
| 2024 | -2.33% | 3.76% | 1.26% | -5.97% | 9.46% | 0.70% | 9.44% | 5.34% | 10.81% | 14.85% | 10.29% | 3.36% |
| 2023 | -3.50% | -5.01% | -0.57% | 6.05% | 2.99% | -6.16% | -2.28% | -1.14% | -5.27% | -6.41% | 3.97% | 4.23% |
| 2022 | 0.05% | -1.34% | 5.93% | 3.71% | 7.67% | 0.20% | 9.62% | 3.26% | -6.86% | -2.77% | 1.40% | 1.45% |
| 2021 | 4.29% | -5.95% | 7.59% | 7.66% | -1.91% | 7.86% | 3.30% | 2.58% | -0.31% | -4.82% | -6.27% | 5.01% |
| 2020 | -7.35% | -17.53% | -0.77% | -0.78% | 6.58% | 1.25% | 1.02% | 4.46% | -0.10% | 13.22% | 6.75% | |
| Avg | -2.65% | -1.91% | -0.54% | 2.68% | 4.47% | 2.22% | 2.35% | 0.94% | 2.19% | 1.56% | 1.50% | 2.90% |
CPX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CPX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CPX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CPX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes