Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +29.2% with a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -11.5% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +37.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +24.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -124.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.00% | 26.83% | -14.01% | 1.27% | -9.34% | -22.20% | -0.86% | 20.17% | -16.11% | -16.80% | ||
| 2025 | 28.14% | 15.42% | 42.13% | 1.04% | 17.74% | -0.20% | -15.70% | 43.07% | 12.47% | -20.83% | -0.50% | 25.63% |
| 2024 | -4.26% | -5.19% | 4.17% | 3.75% | -2.17% | -21.67% | 20.44% | 17.23% | -3.34% | 17.74% | -3.13% | 20.61% |
| 2023 | 21.57% | 29.03% | 3.75% | 50.84% | -2.40% | -2.62% | 0.67% | 3.51% | -22.58% | 0.42% | -12.03% | -0.24% |
| 2022 | 11.86% | 9.09% | -5.56% | 8.82% | -12.16% | 2.77% | 4.79% | 2.57% | -28.97% | -14.90% | 3.69% | 13.33% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 212.50% | 25.00% | -8.80% | -12.28% | -22.00% | 28.21% | -5.00% | 3.51% |
| 2020 | -16.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.04% | -7.69% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 11.55% | 8.46% | 4.35% | 9.39% | 29.17% | -1.34% | 0.08% | 10.61% | -11.51% | 3.95% | -4.11% | 10.47% |
CNL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CNL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CNL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CNL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes