Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +5.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.6% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +4.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -30.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
CMG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CMG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.47% | -15.73% | 5.42% | -5.14% | -4.43% | -7.50% | 9.50% | 3.57% | 1.49% | 0.97% | ||
| 2025 | -3.00% | -21.49% | 0.01% | -1.36% | -15.47% | 8.06% | 9.71% | -21.37% | 0.97% | -15.15% | -0.56% | -1.13% |
| 2024 | 1.78% | -2.04% | 1.19% | 7.96% | 22.95% | -1.93% | 5.08% | -8.08% | -10.38% | 0.62% | -10.31% | 4.26% |
| 2023 | 6.17% | 12.28% | 5.18% | -2.34% | -3.24% | -2.22% | 8.11% | 20.56% | -1.51% | 7.76% | 10.04% | 0.98% |
| 2022 | 12.21% | 14.44% | -1.10% | -11.01% | 5.24% | -2.22% | 2.47% | -7.63% | 11.63% | 6.30% | 11.85% | -2.65% |
| 2021 | 21.52% | -3.71% | 1.51% | -4.70% | -0.73% | -5.20% | -15.07% | -10.14% | 23.01% | 14.35% | -15.87% | -5.48% |
| 2020 | -13.74% | -44.23% | 22.19% | -1.71% | 4.31% | 4.21% | 5.45% | -0.23% | -8.33% | 12.05% | -7.04% | |
| Avg | 5.20% | -4.29% | -4.57% | 0.80% | 0.37% | -0.96% | 3.43% | -2.52% | 3.57% | 0.92% | 1.20% | -1.84% |
CMG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CMG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes