Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.76% | -1.01% | 3.60% | 42.11% | -4.42% | -2.96% | -10.32% | -10.35% | 23.83% | -29.24% | ||
| 2025 | 35.26% | -13.90% | -26.52% | 3.62% | 35.10% | 33.88% | 30.20% | -3.43% | 28.03% | 41.00% | -0.57% | -15.43% |
| 2024 | 19.07% | 24.82% | 5.51% | -2.05% | 27.81% | 2.82% | -7.57% | -5.23% | 0.76% | 37.81% | 26.33% | 10.21% |
| 2023 | 16.12% | -0.51% | -1.13% | -15.66% | 17.76% | 11.09% | 50.70% | 8.70% | 5.52% | -2.62% | 12.94% | 6.15% |
| 2022 | 12.27% | -4.80% | -1.33% | -2.89% | -3.19% | -10.44% | 7.75% | 0.44% | -14.10% | 28.44% | 0.40% | 1.67% |
| 2021 | 0.97% | 1.74% | -0.47% | -2.48% | 1.17% | -6.18% | 13.48% | 8.52% | -6.01% | 8.44% | 7.30% | 7.72% |
| 2020 | -29.38% | -41.61% | 75.91% | 7.94% | -0.64% | 18.67% | -6.06% | -11.45% | -14.89% | 24.90% | 5.01% | |
| Avg | 12.99% | -3.29% | -8.85% | 14.08% | 11.74% | 3.94% | 14.70% | -1.06% | 3.80% | 16.36% | 11.88% | 2.55% |
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +16.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +30.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -52.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
CLS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CLS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CLS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CLS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes