Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +9.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +24.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +24.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CJ.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.75% | 11.96% | 15.80% | 9.68% | -7.02% | -4.61% | 6.24% | 4.70% | -0.84% | 14.96% | ||
| 2025 | -1.56% | 2.52% | 1.72% | -10.40% | 8.17% | 10.57% | 7.54% | 2.22% | 7.11% | 3.75% | 13.54% | -2.78% |
| 2024 | 2.39% | 4.84% | 7.86% | 0.54% | 0.72% | -4.12% | 3.43% | 0.56% | -5.68% | 1.08% | 3.27% | -0.30% |
| 2023 | 1.29% | -6.28% | 0.83% | 3.38% | -5.66% | -2.76% | 10.04% | 1.40% | 3.31% | 1.06% | -8.37% | -5.95% |
| 2022 | 23.42% | 22.96% | 17.90% | -10.34% | 35.04% | -21.33% | 29.39% | -9.60% | -14.45% | 30.98% | -11.04% | -5.87% |
| 2021 | 26.83% | 46.15% | 72.37% | 3.05% | 21.11% | 6.73% | -10.03% | 7.01% | 24.40% | 11.72% | -13.49% | 5.69% |
| 2020 | -16.18% | -76.68% | 26.67% | -17.54% | 12.77% | -3.77% | 17.65% | -27.50% | -5.75% | 46.34% | 36.67% | |
| Avg | 9.19% | 9.43% | 5.69% | 3.22% | 4.97% | -0.40% | 6.12% | 3.42% | -1.95% | 7.14% | 5.04% | 4.58% |
CJ.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CJ.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CJ.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes