Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +17.8% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -13.0% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -8.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.54% | 10.27% | -0.75% | 7.77% | -3.87% | 5.12% | 12.45% | -7.59% | 4.69% | 4.32% | ||
| 2025 | -9.92% | -0.46% | -9.60% | -0.20% | 19.35% | -1.53% | -4.14% | 6.29% | 1.02% | 5.86% | -1.98% | -14.93% |
| 2024 | -1.43% | -4.12% | -6.83% | 17.91% | -10.59% | 5.79% | 11.92% | 19.02% | -1.28% | -7.49% | 9.10% | 11.82% |
| 2023 | 8.57% | -5.95% | 7.42% | 0.57% | 10.14% | -9.30% | 3.72% | -7.17% | 10.89% | -11.93% | -4.56% | 5.15% |
| 2022 | -4.70% | 6.71% | -3.11% | -1.86% | -1.90% | -16.27% | 3.79% | -19.70% | 1.00% | 1.76% | 11.23% | -21.84% |
| 2021 | 13.27% | 31.62% | -13.82% | 6.63% | 23.62% | -5.10% | -13.29% | 1.70% | 0.00% | 0.91% | -11.61% | 16.13% |
| 2020 | -2.31% | -64.53% | 42.22% | -12.56% | -44.74% | -0.50% | 23.75% | -27.17% | -29.40% | 104.32% | -10.87% | |
| Avg | -0.46% | 5.11% | -13.03% | 10.43% | 3.46% | -9.43% | 1.99% | 2.33% | -1.55% | -6.72% | 17.75% | -2.42% |
CGX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CGX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CGX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CGX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes