Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +19.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -16.0% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +81.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
CFW.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.66% | 13.23% | 15.93% | -18.32% | 18.32% | 1.74% | -2.33% | 11.76% | -8.11% | 13.62% | ||
| 2025 | -0.26% | 2.38% | -0.52% | -14.03% | -1.21% | 4.89% | 15.45% | -14.65% | 2.37% | -11.56% | 15.03% | 18.47% |
| 2024 | 14.99% | -3.89% | -19.84% | 6.57% | -1.18% | 1.92% | 1.65% | -5.32% | -8.07% | 2.39% | 1.56% | -3.07% |
| 2023 | 4.43% | -11.77% | -27.58% | 4.67% | -3.52% | -6.57% | 37.50% | 14.20% | -6.47% | -8.69% | -12.62% | -0.67% |
| 2022 | 29.29% | -7.73% | -10.58% | 12.50% | -6.94% | 3.20% | -2.89% | 16.81% | -3.28% | 40.87% | -6.42% | -12.86% |
| 2021 | -3.05% | 5.76% | -3.47% | -12.31% | -2.63% | 21.62% | -10.62% | -12.43% | 10.41% | 79.14% | -22.65% | -13.40% |
| 2020 | -27.84% | -65.71% | -8.33% | -4.55% | -14.29% | -22.22% | 7.14% | 6.67% | 12.50% | 61.11% | -72.83% | |
| Avg | 10.84% | -4.27% | -15.97% | -4.18% | -0.25% | 1.79% | 2.36% | 2.50% | -0.93% | 19.11% | 6.00% | -14.06% |
CFW.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CFW.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CFW.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes