Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
CF.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.23% | 13.61% | -11.05% | -0.50% | 10.38% | 12.37% | -1.37% | 1.59% | -3.79% | -3.50% | ||
| 2025 | -2.67% | -15.79% | 2.56% | 0.48% | 10.06% | 12.36% | 3.86% | -4.68% | 5.60% | 9.50% | 0.98% | -6.19% |
| 2024 | -2.76% | 10.11% | 10.56% | -1.91% | 6.19% | -7.76% | 11.11% | -10.04% | 7.41% | 11.46% | 9.44% | -7.08% |
| 2023 | 37.19% | 0.92% | -5.03% | -1.28% | -11.66% | -11.66% | -0.60% | 3.57% | -5.29% | -11.04% | -6.65% | 14.98% |
| 2022 | 0.66% | -14.39% | -4.34% | -8.50% | -7.52% | -18.58% | 18.03% | -21.11% | -12.81% | 3.10% | 12.18% | 8.33% |
| 2021 | 5.20% | -2.19% | 0.70% | 3.04% | 12.07% | 2.84% | 0.15% | 11.35% | -7.56% | 2.80% | -0.42% | 6.27% |
| 2020 | 2.80% | -13.57% | 24.48% | 4.45% | 23.79% | 12.59% | 0.19% | -12.27% | -2.50% | 35.91% | 24.83% | |
| Avg | 7.47% | -0.71% | -2.88% | 2.26% | 3.42% | 1.91% | 6.25% | -2.73% | -4.10% | 2.22% | 8.57% | 6.86% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +19.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
CF.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CF.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
CF.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years