Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.73% | 18.52% | 9.71% | 5.05% | -10.44% | -4.01% | -1.39% | 13.65% | -3.31% | 11.96% | ||
| 2025 | -13.21% | -7.08% | -6.97% | -17.84% | 2.80% | 6.77% | 9.35% | 14.34% | 13.81% | 2.34% | 27.89% | 0.18% |
| 2024 | 17.10% | 5.69% | 11.02% | 20.38% | 27.34% | 7.08% | 7.27% | -3.15% | -6.11% | 6.68% | 21.05% | 3.01% |
| 2023 | 5.07% | 1.72% | -8.46% | 0.37% | -12.27% | 12.13% | 7.25% | 30.96% | 5.29% | -5.71% | -4.96% | 0.71% |
| 2022 | 20.20% | 4.10% | -4.90% | 9.58% | 5.70% | -15.64% | 14.16% | -6.77% | -11.43% | 31.65% | 0.00% | -3.13% |
| 2021 | 9.38% | 10.00% | 4.55% | 0.62% | 9.26% | 9.04% | -16.06% | -6.79% | 26.98% | 1.58% | -7.77% | 14.95% |
| 2020 | 4.37% | -60.03% | 44.44% | -13.68% | 6.93% | -13.89% | 2.15% | -17.89% | -17.95% | 76.56% | 13.27% | |
| Avg | 9.04% | 5.33% | -7.87% | 8.95% | 1.24% | 3.19% | 0.96% | 6.34% | 1.05% | 3.10% | 18.80% | 4.83% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +18.8% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +26.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +34.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
CEU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CEU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CEU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CEU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes