Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +3.7% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -1.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.35% | 15.62% | -7.75% | -1.58% | 3.80% | 4.30% | 0.52% | 0.05% | 1.28% | 5.64% | ||
| 2025 | -2.38% | 2.83% | -4.88% | 2.49% | 11.09% | -0.37% | -2.47% | 6.22% | -4.27% | -0.26% | 9.22% | 1.85% |
| 2024 | -3.44% | 20.23% | 0.47% | 1.55% | -0.07% | 2.82% | 4.41% | 2.58% | 7.39% | -1.49% | -4.44% | -4.34% |
| 2023 | 7.59% | 5.46% | 2.73% | -5.11% | -0.72% | 3.39% | -2.92% | -4.48% | -5.16% | -4.89% | 3.15% | 7.01% |
| 2022 | -2.02% | -14.02% | -0.88% | -0.69% | 8.41% | 0.62% | 5.74% | 0.14% | 4.32% | -4.42% | -0.09% | -9.18% |
| 2021 | 1.52% | 14.25% | 4.03% | 0.36% | -3.00% | 1.18% | 4.80% | 0.66% | -8.65% | 3.13% | -7.33% | 8.56% |
| 2020 | -20.61% | -3.03% | 1.68% | 6.62% | -5.03% | 1.55% | 8.19% | 6.89% | -1.05% | 12.72% | 1.23% | |
| Avg | -0.68% | 3.39% | -1.33% | -0.19% | 3.73% | 0.99% | 1.66% | 1.91% | 0.26% | -1.50% | 2.20% | 0.85% |
CCL-B.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CCL-B.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CCL-B.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CCL-B.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes