Seasonality
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Seasonality
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CAS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +11.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +44.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65% | -5.94% | -0.81% | -8.89% | 3.14% | 6.20% | 15.62% | 23.71% | 10.63% | -6.88% | ||
| 2025 | 7.89% | -12.68% | -12.57% | -8.97% | 1.51% | 0.79% | 1.35% | 10.20% | -1.93% | 15.25% | 14.51% | -1.11% |
| 2024 | 15.55% | -28.48% | -4.85% | -6.57% | 6.73% | -7.29% | 7.75% | -3.49% | 12.51% | 0.58% | 16.79% | -1.73% |
| 2023 | 8.87% | 16.50% | 3.54% | 0.46% | -1.92% | 9.05% | 2.82% | 6.76% | -3.46% | -8.39% | 10.35% | 3.66% |
| 2022 | -8.95% | 3.22% | -1.44% | -1.48% | -17.40% | -1.75% | -3.26% | -7.55% | -10.17% | 9.95% | -4.27% | 1.44% |
| 2021 | 6.53% | 8.32% | -5.89% | -8.33% | -4.07% | 10.98% | 4.78% | -1.14% | -0.06% | -8.49% | -5.57% | 4.02% |
| 2020 | -3.54% | 15.99% | 10.82% | 1.94% | 4.75% | 3.25% | -8.69% | 21.41% | -15.80% | 3.53% | -0.34% | |
| Avg | 5.42% | -3.23% | -0.86% | -3.28% | -1.44% | 3.25% | 4.62% | 2.83% | 4.13% | -1.15% | 5.89% | 0.99% |
CAS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CAS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CAS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes