Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
BK.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.14% | 0.13% | -5.33% | 13.64% | 10.72% | 10.70% | 5.76% | -2.75% | -2.69% | -5.62% | ||
| 2025 | 4.13% | -0.42% | -4.00% | 0.51% | 8.80% | 4.51% | 5.63% | 4.59% | 18.87% | 0.84% | 1.54% | 17.77% |
| 2024 | 1.73% | -0.93% | 5.94% | 1.53% | 4.61% | -1.81% | 3.96% | 1.26% | 3.52% | 2.13% | 6.36% | -3.34% |
| 2023 | 4.29% | 1.54% | -2.27% | 0.87% | 0.19% | 2.04% | 1.41% | -1.66% | -13.16% | -11.54% | 4.21% | 7.90% |
| 2022 | 10.67% | -0.40% | 0.97% | -1.53% | 2.96% | -5.75% | -1.20% | -0.21% | -1.00% | 1.22% | 5.64% | -0.08% |
| 2021 | 0.49% | 14.59% | 9.27% | 4.13% | 8.35% | 1.08% | 1.26% | 1.81% | -2.26% | 7.52% | 4.59% | 6.27% |
| 2020 | -12.75% | -28.05% | 7.18% | -5.63% | 1.66% | 0.04% | 18.83% | -8.90% | 0.83% | 30.40% | 3.49% | |
| Avg | 3.36% | 0.25% | -3.35% | 3.76% | 4.29% | 1.77% | 2.41% | 3.13% | -0.80% | 0.17% | 8.79% | 5.34% |
BK.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BK.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
BK.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years