Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -0.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +120.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
BDT.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BDT.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BDT.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BDT.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.99% | 5.73% | 25.43% | 25.91% | 15.51% | 12.13% | 3.42% | 1.35% | 21.28% | -15.76% | ||
| 2025 | -8.95% | -6.42% | -1.03% | -2.71% | 28.42% | 6.74% | 0.45% | -21.39% | 33.80% | 0.03% | -11.85% | 7.97% |
| 2024 | 6.57% | 11.53% | 9.67% | 1.81% | 14.67% | 24.04% | -3.29% | -11.25% | 5.53% | 25.70% | 2.01% | -15.30% |
| 2023 | 5.08% | 6.98% | 0.73% | -5.33% | -2.04% | 1.39% | 5.51% | 23.63% | -5.52% | 3.96% | 11.98% | 21.31% |
| 2022 | -1.69% | -0.89% | -3.55% | -5.44% | -2.17% | -10.48% | -2.09% | -8.49% | -9.61% | 3.57% | 21.40% | 9.89% |
| 2021 | 2.90% | 5.15% | 4.59% | 1.59% | 5.77% | -7.18% | -2.91% | 16.09% | -0.08% | 2.78% | -5.74% | 4.05% |
| 2020 | -9.65% | -21.61% | 14.35% | 10.47% | 5.14% | 15.87% | 0.04% | -5.36% | -0.25% | 13.83% | 11.11% | |
| Avg | 1.65% | 1.78% | 2.03% | 4.31% | 10.09% | 4.54% | 2.42% | -0.00% | 5.72% | 5.96% | 5.27% | 6.50% |