Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +12.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +22.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.55% | 4.48% | -7.22% | 6.27% | 16.11% | -5.92% | -5.20% | -2.57% | 19.50% | -8.26% | ||
| 2025 | -2.45% | -7.52% | 5.95% | -9.05% | 19.16% | 2.33% | 19.72% | -2.28% | 21.31% | 6.79% | -5.02% | 3.56% |
| 2024 | 6.12% | 10.84% | -6.55% | -5.36% | -6.85% | 3.05% | 13.58% | 6.85% | 0.00% | -7.65% | -4.09% | 8.71% |
| 2023 | 5.59% | 30.39% | -10.38% | 15.32% | -10.37% | -1.14% | 1.82% | 1.46% | 15.53% | -12.78% | 35.67% | -3.77% |
| 2022 | 3.61% | -7.84% | 16.42% | -11.00% | -2.52% | -12.33% | 1.08% | 8.78% | -6.73% | 14.47% | 2.76% | 8.53% |
| 2021 | -2.21% | 19.92% | 8.78% | 13.83% | 10.13% | -8.05% | 1.25% | -7.41% | 0.80% | 19.84% | -1.96% | 0.29% |
| 2020 | -12.95% | -37.50% | 26.67% | -2.26% | 18.46% | 12.34% | -15.03% | 1.36% | 14.77% | 2.92% | 54.55% | |
| Avg | 3.87% | 5.33% | -4.36% | 5.24% | 3.34% | -0.51% | 6.37% | -1.46% | 7.40% | 5.91% | 5.05% | 11.98% |
BDI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BDI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BDI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BDI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes