Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
AYA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +22.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +23.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +40.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.53% | 33.62% | -28.14% | 10.65% | 23.59% | -7.44% | 2.53% | 40.38% | -0.91% | -13.10% | ||
| 2025 | 8.75% | -1.71% | -3.14% | -14.75% | 24.47% | 3.81% | -3.59% | 15.58% | 17.95% | -7.33% | 27.61% | 3.15% |
| 2024 | 6.18% | -5.33% | 19.47% | 13.55% | 13.37% | -9.53% | 14.73% | -3.92% | 17.57% | 1.65% | -26.33% | -18.51% |
| 2023 | -10.31% | -1.11% | 36.00% | -0.92% | -12.89% | -9.58% | -1.06% | -1.55% | -11.85% | 3.02% | 32.76% | -2.61% |
| 2022 | -10.05% | 17.93% | -11.94% | -9.87% | -12.56% | -6.69% | 12.50% | 3.93% | 4.43% | -1.37% | 4.81% | 8.94% |
| 2021 | 18.18% | 4.84% | 3.35% | 53.14% | -2.65% | 24.90% | 11.98% | -2.33% | -22.41% | 18.36% | 5.42% | -1.75% |
| 2020 | -53.67% | 18.29% | 103.09% | 6.60% | -32.38% | 52.11% | 15.74% | 4.40% | 16.48% | -5.59% | 34.15% | |
| Avg | 4.21% | -0.78% | 4.84% | 22.13% | 5.70% | -5.27% | 12.74% | 9.69% | 1.31% | 5.13% | 6.45% | 3.89% |
AYA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AYA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AYA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes