Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.53% | 3.33% | 1.34% | -0.75% | -1.87% | 2.19% | 1.69% | -3.33% | 1.49% | -2.22% | ||
| 2025 | -4.11% | -2.56% | 0.17% | -2.42% | 4.38% | 12.13% | 3.25% | -0.65% | -0.93% | -2.06% | 2.35% | 2.23% |
| 2024 | -1.47% | -2.16% | ||||||||||
| Avg | -4.32% | 0.38% | 0.76% | -1.59% | 1.26% | 7.16% | 2.47% | -1.99% | 0.28% | -2.06% | 0.44% | 0.04% |
Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 2Y.
Jun averages +7.2% with a 100% win rate across 2 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -4.3% with only a 0% win rate across 2 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.2% historically, with January alone posting a 0% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 2Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -18.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
AW.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
2 years of data
AW.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 2 years
AW.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2024 to 2026
AW.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes