Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
ATX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +41.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -12.7% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +55.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +36.2% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -76.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.82% | 10.77% | -25.69% | -3.43% | -8.71% | -13.78% | -4.51% | 12.02% | -14.56% | -20.63% | ||
| 2025 | 39.86% | 17.50% | -5.53% | -12.16% | 17.95% | -2.17% | -12.44% | 15.74% | 11.40% | 1.97% | -7.72% | 38.49% |
| 2024 | 10.67% | 37.35% | 29.82% | -9.46% | 10.45% | -14.86% | 0.00% | -2.38% | 15.45% | 16.20% | -6.06% | -7.74% |
| 2023 | 25.97% | 22.68% | 31.93% | -1.27% | -36.13% | -14.14% | 32.94% | -27.43% | -17.07% | 11.76% | 21.05% | -18.48% |
| 2022 | 38.89% | -12.00% | 59.09% | 7.14% | 1.33% | -6.58% | -14.08% | -3.28% | -15.25% | -4.00% | 25.00% | 28.33% |
| 2021 | 26.92% | -15.15% | -28.57% | 5.00% | -14.29% | -22.22% | -7.14% | 7.69% | -21.43% | 0.00% | 236.36% | -2.70% |
| 2020 | -22.22% | -33.33% | -14.29% | 8.33% | -15.38% | 127.27% | -40.00% | 80.00% | -3.70% | -19.23% | 23.81% | |
| Avg | 26.69% | 5.56% | 3.96% | -4.07% | -3.01% | -12.74% | 17.43% | -5.38% | 5.50% | 3.70% | 41.57% | 10.29% |
ATX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ATX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ATX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes