Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -43.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
ATS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.35% | 12.53% | -9.97% | 12.39% | -3.27% | -4.11% | -6.43% | -30.14% | -3.74% | 3.03% | ||
| 2025 | -10.33% | 7.00% | -14.72% | -3.15% | 14.34% | 9.34% | -3.18% | -9.58% | -4.23% | 5.96% | -6.87% | 5.23% |
| 2024 | 0.70% | -11.08% | -10.87% | -0.64% | -4.13% | 1.96% | -6.28% | -12.75% | 8.40% | 6.35% | 9.90% | -4.40% |
| 2023 | 28.01% | 2.17% | 2.80% | 2.63% | 2.36% | 2.52% | -1.89% | 1.37% | -4.49% | -19.34% | 14.37% | 6.93% |
| 2022 | 3.30% | -5.30% | -8.24% | -16.87% | -0.96% | -4.79% | 14.71% | -1.06% | -9.12% | 18.21% | 3.99% | -6.09% |
| 2021 | -1.83% | 27.85% | -5.63% | 12.01% | 0.37% | 19.56% | 5.56% | 21.46% | -11.92% | 4.80% | 13.20% | 5.39% |
| 2020 | -11.81% | -8.20% | 25.46% | -3.10% | -4.45% | -9.31% | 6.00% | -5.82% | -4.68% | 31.45% | 3.04% | |
| Avg | 3.70% | 3.05% | -7.83% | 4.55% | 0.80% | 2.86% | -0.97% | -3.53% | -4.42% | 1.88% | 11.01% | 1.68% |
ATS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ATS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ATS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes