Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +23.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -0.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +38.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +38.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.66% | 10.39% | 27.55% | 6.31% | -8.78% | -6.32% | 1.37% | 2.61% | -2.26% | 15.30% | ||
| 2025 | -8.82% | -2.06% | 17.23% | -18.64% | 13.66% | 9.30% | 3.90% | 2.73% | 10.63% | 3.45% | 13.21% | -9.87% |
| 2024 | 4.08% | 13.36% | 6.30% | -8.22% | 4.38% | 3.39% | 9.27% | -4.24% | -11.44% | 7.71% | -0.58% | 3.70% |
| 2023 | 21.58% | 1.71% | 8.39% | 3.41% | -14.97% | 1.06% | 18.47% | 10.29% | 16.00% | -5.29% | -5.83% | 7.47% |
| 2022 | 0.84% | 64.17% | 3.05% | 21.18% | 5.28% | -3.86% | -2.81% | 7.02% | -17.76% | 29.11% | 0.73% | -13.00% |
| 2021 | 35.29% | 86.96% | 23.26% | 13.21% | 28.33% | 27.27% | -19.39% | -7.59% | 26.03% | 10.87% | 16.67% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | -10.00% | -61.11% | 0.00% | -7.14% | 38.46% | -5.56% | 5.88% | -27.78% | -7.69% | 33.33% | 6.25% | |
| Avg | 11.10% | 23.50% | 3.52% | 2.46% | 2.97% | 9.90% | 0.75% | 2.39% | -0.94% | 6.36% | 9.59% | -0.91% |
ATH.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ATH.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ATH.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ATH.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes