Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -3.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.50% | 16.85% | -4.49% | 1.92% | -3.07% | 16.06% | 0.91% | -8.28% | -6.91% | 7.54% | ||
| 2025 | -3.73% | -6.28% | -1.06% | 1.40% | -1.13% | -4.86% | 6.67% | -3.32% | 6.95% | -4.00% | 7.08% | -1.51% |
| 2024 | 0.96% | 6.84% | -7.94% | -1.31% | 4.26% | -3.49% | 11.11% | -9.61% | -2.58% | -2.89% | 12.81% | -2.44% |
| 2023 | 2.12% | 5.35% | 6.39% | -0.49% | -2.79% | 3.35% | -1.52% | 5.84% | -2.19% | 9.44% | 2.53% | 1.04% |
| 2022 | -3.26% | -2.96% | 13.44% | 1.54% | 0.49% | -12.63% | 14.19% | -1.35% | -1.29% | 9.69% | 0.69% | -2.90% |
| 2021 | -9.15% | -2.25% | 5.67% | 2.53% | 4.57% | 5.61% | 10.73% | 0.88% | -5.03% | -3.38% | -0.25% | 13.08% |
| 2020 | -7.86% | -17.95% | 17.50% | 9.83% | -0.74% | 8.75% | -8.33% | 8.85% | -11.12% | 4.73% | 0.90% | |
| Avg | -3.09% | 1.38% | -0.85% | 3.30% | 1.74% | 0.47% | 7.26% | -3.45% | -0.31% | -0.38% | 4.60% | 1.36% |
ATD.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ATD.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ATD.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ATD.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes