Seasonality
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Seasonality
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ARG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +21.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +27.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +45.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.47% | 11.51% | -18.27% | 16.93% | 16.55% | -7.67% | 10.83% | 24.26% | 9.15% | -19.57% | ||
| 2025 | 6.41% | 9.04% | 7.25% | -9.42% | 6.32% | 19.89% | -0.92% | 5.59% | 21.43% | 12.50% | 24.61% | 21.84% |
| 2024 | -7.19% | 3.88% | 18.22% | 11.61% | 1.65% | -10.40% | 6.30% | 3.75% | 6.10% | -1.72% | 1.76% | -8.77% |
| 2023 | 17.42% | 3.23% | 3.77% | -1.23% | -11.88% | 10.79% | 5.19% | -9.89% | -11.19% | -7.09% | 19.67% | 0.72% |
| 2022 | 8.22% | 4.43% | 13.49% | -13.59% | 5.57% | -24.85% | 4.84% | -16.24% | -8.49% | 5.15% | 30.64% | 1.54% |
| 2021 | -2.50% | 14.10% | 2.25% | 36.26% | 14.52% | -16.90% | 7.63% | 1.57% | -2.33% | 3.17% | -0.72% | 14.96% |
| 2020 | -39.22% | -48.39% | 68.75% | -3.70% | 42.31% | 40.54% | 3.85% | 1.85% | -5.45% | 51.92% | 1.27% | |
| Avg | 7.47% | 1.00% | -3.10% | 15.62% | 4.15% | 1.88% | 10.63% | 1.84% | 2.36% | 1.09% | 21.31% | 5.26% |
ARG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ARG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes