Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +5.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53% | 4.72% | -3.43% | 4.54% | 3.93% | 2.73% | 0.15% | -2.13% | -2.26% | 6.13% | ||
| 2025 | -1.22% | -4.15% | 1.05% | 1.44% | 6.96% | 5.82% | -1.77% | 5.78% | -3.56% | -3.18% | -0.29% | 2.49% |
| 2024 | 1.23% | -5.78% | 2.02% | -3.94% | 3.30% | -2.64% | 9.47% | 7.67% | 9.45% | -2.07% | -4.61% | -7.52% |
| 2023 | -3.52% | 1.82% | -7.98% | 0.12% | -0.30% | 1.45% | 2.74% | -10.71% | 0.92% | -4.74% | 6.12% | 3.98% |
| 2022 | -3.58% | -0.66% | 3.12% | -6.36% | 4.68% | -4.21% | -2.78% | -0.81% | 3.38% | -9.57% | -5.93% | 16.92% |
| 2021 | 0.13% | 0.87% | 7.62% | 4.76% | 6.92% | -1.46% | 2.94% | 2.94% | -1.89% | 6.01% | -1.92% | 14.55% |
| 2020 | -8.46% | -34.18% | 7.78% | 12.20% | 6.09% | 2.74% | 4.59% | 2.19% | -1.77% | 12.06% | -0.61% | |
| Avg | -0.74% | -1.66% | -4.54% | 1.19% | 5.38% | 1.11% | 1.93% | 1.05% | 1.18% | -2.55% | 0.91% | 4.97% |
APR-UN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
APR-UN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APR-UN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APR-UN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes