Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +58.1% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages +0.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +67.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +67.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -192.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.66% | 20.41% | -33.81% | -10.07% | 6.88% | -12.87% | -4.30% | 24.42% | -18.47% | -13.10% | ||
| 2025 | 38.39% | -3.23% | 7.33% | 27.95% | 2.43% | 36.02% | 27.87% | 58.86% | 42.37% | -23.49% | 36.06% | 12.96% |
| 2024 | 22.95% | -12.00% | 27.27% | 5.95% | 12.36% | -7.00% | 16.13% | -3.70% | 25.96% | 35.88% | -27.53% | -13.18% |
| 2023 | -12.61% | -13.40% | -4.76% | 13.75% | -14.29% | -2.56% | -11.84% | -5.97% | -6.35% | 0.00% | -1.69% | 5.17% |
| 2022 | 14.29% | 0.00% | -17.00% | -16.27% | -7.91% | -15.63% | 9.26% | -26.27% | -11.49% | -5.19% | 9.59% | 38.75% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 458.33% | -11.94% | 39.83% | 3.03% | -20.00% | 1.47% | -21.01% | 15.60% | 15.08% | 20.69% |
| 2020 | 12.50% | -30.56% | 28.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 8.73% | 0.61% | 58.12% | 5.34% | 5.61% | 0.14% | 2.45% | 14.11% | 1.57% | 3.80% | 5.25% | 10.73% |
APM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
APM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes