Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.3% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -8.8% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a -2.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -55.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53% | -31.89% | -2.83% | 7.83% | 2.74% | -1.40% | 0.29% | -12.85% | -15.78% | -20.99% | ||
| 2025 | 2.22% | -1.84% | -2.19% | -5.50% | 3.84% | 9.70% | 1.70% | 8.39% | 12.30% | -28.03% | -11.01% | 3.31% |
| 2024 | -2.56% | -12.22% | 4.91% | -3.34% | 0.67% | -8.47% | 9.03% | 5.99% | 17.16% | -8.44% | -0.27% | -4.77% |
| 2023 | 16.52% | -3.06% | -14.36% | -5.90% | -1.81% | -1.57% | 1.72% | -4.66% | -12.95% | -10.76% | 13.70% | 16.56% |
| 2022 | 2.11% | -1.12% | 6.11% | -10.20% | -6.72% | -14.04% | 3.41% | -7.75% | -12.33% | -3.04% | 0.06% | -1.94% |
| 2021 | -3.70% | 6.09% | 6.31% | 5.30% | 4.32% | 1.90% | 1.78% | -4.98% | -6.77% | 6.69% | -3.24% | 6.89% |
| 2020 | -1.12% | -17.61% | -0.09% | -9.92% | 2.74% | -1.75% | -7.92% | -2.21% | -9.48% | 26.76% | -6.99% | |
| Avg | 3.35% | -6.45% | -2.81% | -1.70% | -0.98% | -1.59% | 2.31% | -3.40% | -2.94% | -8.84% | 4.33% | 2.18% |
AP-UN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AP-UN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AP-UN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AP-UN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes