Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +5.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -0.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53% | 11.81% | 1.77% | 0.69% | 17.76% | 9.67% | -8.71% | 11.25% | 0.34% | -19.45% | ||
| 2025 | 1.47% | -10.66% | 2.98% | 9.41% | -2.44% | 3.95% | 6.25% | 3.42% | 11.64% | 13.41% | 4.53% | 3.18% |
| 2024 | -3.69% | 0.23% | 15.91% | 5.89% | 1.57% | -3.73% | 3.96% | 10.72% | 7.16% | 1.15% | 0.23% | 1.18% |
| 2023 | 0.68% | -3.18% | 6.58% | -7.57% | 2.54% | 0.88% | -2.24% | 3.34% | -0.36% | -7.51% | -3.73% | -5.29% |
| 2022 | 1.32% | 23.98% | 10.53% | -11.04% | -9.33% | -6.34% | 0.83% | 0.53% | 5.73% | 10.12% | 3.40% | 1.14% |
| 2021 | 7.82% | -0.41% | 2.44% | 11.53% | 6.40% | -4.11% | 0.41% | -4.33% | -4.42% | 1.54% | 2.49% | 7.94% |
| 2020 | -14.75% | -21.79% | 21.30% | 19.19% | -4.51% | 5.24% | 7.12% | -11.34% | 9.18% | 8.05% | 20.30% | |
| Avg | 2.19% | 1.00% | 2.63% | 4.32% | 5.10% | -0.60% | 0.82% | 4.58% | 1.25% | 4.65% | 2.49% | 4.74% |
ALS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ALS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes