Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +7.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +69.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ALC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.59% | 24.19% | -11.49% | 4.64% | 0.78% | 0.59% | 3.61% | 3.13% | 0.85% | 35.27% | ||
| 2025 | 0.81% | 2.42% | 1.99% | 0.13% | 4.72% | 1.38% | -2.04% | 10.63% | -3.47% | 4.19% | 8.01% | 1.67% |
| 2024 | 2.81% | -1.90% | -0.47% | -1.82% | -1.40% | 0.28% | 3.59% | -1.79% | 4.00% | 2.16% | 0.34% | -1.40% |
| 2023 | -2.79% | -0.74% | -2.17% | -0.95% | -3.68% | 2.02% | 0.20% | 0.33% | -2.19% | -0.20% | 5.72% | -2.54% |
| 2022 | 1.23% | 2.49% | -1.14% | -0.23% | -3.44% | -2.79% | -1.50% | 8.22% | -4.84% | 4.47% | -0.36% | 9.76% |
| 2021 | -3.09% | 10.11% | 17.09% | -1.69% | -0.56% | -1.50% | -5.30% | 8.55% | 0.96% | 2.20% | -2.95% | 2.90% |
| 2020 | -4.43% | -25.35% | 5.84% | -1.77% | 9.59% | 3.38% | 0.47% | -2.42% | 5.46% | 19.87% | 32.29% | |
| Avg | 0.26% | 4.59% | -3.08% | 0.85% | -0.76% | 1.37% | 0.28% | 4.22% | -1.02% | 3.05% | 5.10% | 7.11% |
ALC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes