Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +8.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.3% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
ALA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.86% | 12.88% | 4.80% | 5.51% | 5.38% | -1.75% | 6.47% | -3.71% | -2.07% | 5.89% | ||
| 2025 | 0.18% | 5.69% | 12.27% | 3.37% | -6.03% | 3.95% | 3.49% | -0.49% | 6.13% | -3.99% | 4.74% | -2.21% |
| 2024 | 0.47% | 4.08% | 3.91% | 0.87% | 1.89% | 1.50% | 6.50% | 4.86% | -2.19% | -0.63% | 2.92% | -1.32% |
| 2023 | 6.42% | -5.87% | -2.60% | 5.19% | -2.87% | 4.58% | 9.37% | 1.50% | -0.35% | -1.11% | 7.14% | 1.83% |
| 2022 | -4.39% | 6.93% | 1.23% | 4.93% | 3.95% | -10.21% | 5.04% | -0.74% | -5.76% | -7.11% | -8.14% | 4.73% |
| 2021 | 1.87% | 2.00% | 8.99% | 10.12% | 4.41% | 9.21% | 1.82% | -4.01% | -0.78% | 2.84% | -4.84% | 12.74% |
| 2020 | -5.48% | -35.92% | 31.23% | -10.72% | 6.41% | 7.73% | 0.99% | -4.22% | 5.52% | 10.84% | 0.87% | |
| Avg | 0.45% | 2.89% | -1.05% | 8.75% | -0.57% | 1.96% | 5.77% | -0.23% | -1.32% | -0.75% | 2.11% | 2.77% |
ALA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes