Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +7.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +10.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -18.53% | 1.10% | 2.56% | -5.42% | -6.33% | 6.88% | 3.91% | 0.36% | -5.70% | 14.02% | ||
| 2025 | 5.98% | -7.75% | -5.75% | -0.21% | 6.16% | -3.05% | 9.81% | 6.48% | -3.27% | -3.06% | -3.44% | 2.19% |
| 2024 | 7.55% | 10.53% | 3.87% | -2.62% | -7.01% | 7.86% | 14.33% | -5.94% | 1.31% | -4.03% | 12.98% | -5.66% |
| 2023 | 5.37% | 7.13% | -5.67% | -6.26% | -17.90% | -0.20% | 0.23% | 18.19% | -9.36% | 0.17% | -15.07% | 5.72% |
| 2022 | -14.03% | -19.49% | 3.12% | -4.73% | -1.91% | -5.20% | 17.90% | -2.42% | -12.42% | 8.11% | 9.96% | 1.81% |
| 2021 | -0.39% | 14.03% | 8.54% | 2.76% | -4.94% | -2.45% | 2.21% | 12.99% | -6.63% | 5.03% | 0.79% | 8.71% |
| 2020 | 3.53% | -18.34% | 15.15% | 2.52% | -4.99% | 4.58% | 25.67% | 3.50% | -1.48% | -9.70% | 0.14% | |
| Avg | -2.34% | 1.30% | -1.67% | -0.19% | -4.20% | -0.16% | 7.57% | 7.91% | -4.65% | 0.79% | -0.75% | 2.15% |
AIF.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AIF.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AIF.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AIF.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes