Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.33% | 13.06% | -1.32% | -19.31% | 7.53% | 15.73% | 12.86% | -4.16% | -27.52% | -5.24% | ||
| 2025 | 6.89% | 5.59% | -14.95% | 2.66% | 14.04% | 12.99% | -6.22% | -0.16% | 18.52% | -2.94% | 1.29% | 14.97% |
| 2024 | 1.30% | 5.58% | 0.86% | -2.58% | 5.84% | 1.32% | -1.37% | -2.68% | 14.38% | 15.15% | 7.49% | -4.73% |
| 2023 | 21.47% | 10.98% | -15.43% | -4.11% | -6.38% | 11.65% | 1.31% | 1.27% | -10.06% | -7.34% | 11.35% | 6.20% |
| 2022 | -10.39% | -4.59% | 10.20% | -8.20% | -2.27% | -6.97% | -0.93% | -1.28% | -1.78% | 5.85% | 7.13% | 4.59% |
| 2021 | 7.63% | 7.28% | 8.08% | 2.58% | 0.13% | 4.34% | -3.82% | -0.40% | 3.19% | 2.88% | -1.65% | 7.60% |
| 2020 | -13.72% | -50.82% | 47.17% | -12.79% | 33.87% | 7.07% | -5.48% | 18.60% | -2.43% | -2.28% | 8.96% | |
| Avg | 6.54% | 3.45% | -9.05% | 2.60% | 0.87% | 10.42% | 1.27% | -1.84% | 2.19% | 1.86% | 3.89% | 6.26% |
Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +10.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
AGF-B.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AGF-B.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AGF-B.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AGF-B.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes