Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +3.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +3.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.32% | 4.47% | 3.47% | 0.47% | 2.09% | 2.46% | 0.90% | -4.87% | 2.98% | -0.06% | ||
| 2025 | -1.03% | 0.99% | 1.85% | -0.97% | 4.05% | 0.17% | 1.41% | -1.00% | -6.01% | -12.78% | 9.42% | 3.24% |
| 2024 | -5.42% | 3.88% | 4.87% | 0.63% | 0.23% | -0.61% | 5.84% | -4.47% | 2.38% | 5.56% | -3.69% | -0.11% |
| 2023 | 8.15% | -3.71% | 3.01% | -0.06% | 4.38% | 4.03% | -0.12% | 9.70% | -4.42% | -10.44% | 4.32% | 7.76% |
| 2022 | -0.94% | 0.05% | 1.73% | -1.15% | -0.96% | -9.14% | 2.04% | -1.06% | -3.14% | -5.75% | 3.58% | -2.26% |
| 2021 | 1.93% | 11.27% | 8.40% | 4.10% | -7.44% | 4.95% | -9.62% | 4.50% | 3.70% | -1.71% | -4.18% | 10.31% |
| 2020 | 1.10% | -21.40% | 10.12% | -1.71% | 7.32% | 11.43% | 2.66% | -0.36% | -6.15% | 3.21% | 4.11% | |
| Avg | 0.67% | 2.58% | 0.27% | 1.88% | 0.09% | 1.31% | 1.70% | 0.78% | -0.70% | -5.21% | 2.11% | 3.84% |
ADN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ADN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ADN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ADN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes