Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.1% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.91% | 3.61% | -6.18% | 9.32% | 6.48% | 1.23% | 3.05% | -2.56% | -1.65% | 0.34% | ||
| 2025 | 3.76% | -2.11% | 0.68% | 0.73% | -4.44% | 5.15% | -2.20% | -0.27% | 2.99% | 3.71% | 2.76% | 4.12% |
| 2024 | 2.27% | -2.70% | 7.63% | -8.71% | 0.90% | 2.55% | 2.78% | 2.46% | 7.88% | 2.16% | 9.00% | -0.64% |
| 2023 | 11.35% | -0.39% | -3.87% | 3.58% | -10.83% | 0.09% | 4.03% | -2.98% | -7.87% | -8.51% | 21.07% | 9.17% |
| 2022 | -5.11% | 3.20% | 11.62% | -8.31% | 3.13% | -11.72% | 8.16% | -3.41% | -12.24% | 6.47% | 8.35% | -4.28% |
| 2021 | 5.89% | -3.88% | 5.40% | 6.98% | -2.70% | 4.35% | 5.01% | 4.89% | -3.32% | 4.57% | -2.21% | 5.45% |
| 2020 | -8.56% | -57.70% | 22.91% | -4.04% | 36.22% | 2.55% | -10.17% | -5.78% | 12.16% | 19.15% | 5.49% | |
| Avg | 3.84% | -1.55% | -6.06% | 3.78% | -1.64% | 5.41% | 3.34% | -1.72% | -2.86% | 3.42% | 9.69% | 3.22% |
AD-UN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AD-UN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AD-UN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AD-UN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes