Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +16.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -12.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
AC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.28% | 9.44% | -12.17% | 2.92% | 18.34% | 12.10% | 2.55% | 7.57% | -1.06% | -21.81% | ||
| 2025 | -11.90% | -14.58% | -15.40% | -1.41% | 37.44% | 9.74% | -8.40% | 1.04% | -9.95% | 5.01% | 3.15% | 1.42% |
| 2024 | -2.51% | -0.55% | 8.22% | 3.62% | -10.43% | -1.65% | -11.12% | -2.95% | 6.15% | 15.13% | 32.27% | -10.82% |
| 2023 | 16.45% | -10.89% | -4.82% | -0.99% | 13.03% | 16.61% | -2.76% | -6.09% | -15.07% | -13.67% | 5.38% | 6.01% |
| 2022 | 8.19% | 4.77% | 1.25% | -7.22% | -1.38% | -27.72% | 8.42% | 1.73% | -6.16% | 18.13% | -1.63% | 0.52% |
| 2021 | -12.08% | 25.37% | 4.18% | -5.28% | 10.46% | -6.80% | -2.04% | -1.88% | -5.63% | -4.06% | -6.26% | 1.59% |
| 2020 | -22.74% | -54.01% | 28.51% | -21.44% | 6.60% | -10.86% | 16.48% | -10.85% | -6.12% | 67.69% | -7.81% | |
| Avg | -0.69% | -1.31% | -10.39% | 2.88% | 6.57% | 1.27% | -3.46% | 2.27% | -6.08% | 2.40% | 16.76% | -1.52% |
AC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes