Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +15.3% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -6.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +19.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -59.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.22% | -5.18% | 7.57% | -8.01% | -5.81% | 5.96% | 6.69% | 1.18% | -11.50% | 8.53% | ||
| 2025 | -6.39% | 9.32% | 7.43% | -9.69% | 14.20% | 5.81% | -6.59% | 0.54% | 2.70% | -2.45% | 13.03% | -6.68% |
| 2024 | 3.40% | 13.83% | -1.59% | 8.70% | 7.91% | -10.44% | -7.23% | 0.93% | -2.78% | -7.83% | 3.33% | 9.56% |
| 2023 | -12.35% | -3.86% | -2.13% | -2.43% | -4.07% | 18.33% | 7.51% | 3.55% | -3.74% | 8.63% | -7.65% | -8.28% |
| 2022 | -7.15% | 7.70% | 17.54% | 23.19% | 2.33% | -27.14% | 37.63% | 1.91% | -11.50% | 3.73% | 12.23% | -18.08% |
| 2021 | 11.70% | 36.13% | -8.85% | 37.55% | 23.62% | 25.56% | -7.31% | 11.94% | 21.90% | 9.53% | 1.14% | 4.51% |
| 2020 | -8.60% | -29.21% | 58.04% | -7.08% | -20.95% | -3.61% | 35.63% | -19.35% | 25.71% | -6.36% | -16.99% | |
| Avg | -2.84% | 7.05% | -1.32% | 15.34% | 4.44% | -0.41% | 3.87% | 7.95% | -3.47% | 6.22% | 2.62% | -5.99% |
AAV.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AAV.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AAV.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
AAV.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years