Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +0.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -0.1% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +1.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.44% | 0.70% | -0.89% | 0.07% | 0.74% | 0.33% | -0.42% | 0.18% | -0.76% | 0.49% | ||
| 2025 | 0.72% | 0.53% | 0.34% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.30% | -0.11% | 0.56% | 0.85% | 0.37% | 0.11% | -0.26% |
| 2024 | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.44% | -0.48% | 0.95% | 0.72% | 1.45% | 0.57% | 1.24% | -0.29% | 0.61% | 0.46% |
| 2023 | 1.22% | -0.76% | 1.22% | 0.37% | -0.94% | -0.21% | -0.12% | 0.39% | -0.43% | 0.75% | 1.85% | 1.29% |
| 2022 | -1.04% | -0.13% | -1.87% | -1.00% | 0.26% | -0.70% | 1.19% | -1.54% | -0.16% | 0.08% | 0.86% | -0.02% |
| 2021 | 0.10% | -0.93% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.15% | 0.45% | 0.02% | -0.37% | -1.14% | 0.21% | 0.39% |
| 2020 | 0.63% | -0.13% | 1.60% | 0.30% | 0.54% | 0.50% | 0.01% | 0.15% | -0.00% | 0.28% | 0.28% | |
| Avg | 0.23% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.42% | 0.03% | 0.07% | -0.04% | 0.65% | 0.36% |
XSB.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XSB.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
XSB.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XSB.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years