Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.19% | 6.59% | -3.14% | 4.24% | 1.88% | 1.87% | 1.83% | 2.22% | -2.42% | 2.96% | ||
| 2025 | 4.19% | -0.44% | -1.87% | -0.08% | 5.19% | 2.23% | 1.71% | 4.73% | 4.70% | 0.83% | 3.55% | 1.21% |
| 2024 | 0.50% | 1.91% | 3.72% | -2.16% | 2.63% | -1.75% | 6.02% | 1.56% | 3.06% | 0.77% | 6.64% | -3.38% |
| 2023 | 7.40% | -2.65% | -0.52% | 3.57% | -5.32% | 3.54% | 2.15% | -1.43% | -3.23% | -3.17% | 7.86% | 4.06% |
| 2022 | -0.25% | -0.07% | 3.94% | -5.02% | 0.12% | -8.23% | 3.86% | -1.65% | -3.84% | 5.59% | 5.50% | -5.34% |
| 2021 | -0.19% | 4.38% | 4.56% | 2.31% | 3.77% | 2.66% | 0.85% | 1.28% | -1.94% | 5.46% | -1.00% | 3.14% |
| 2020 | -5.45% | -15.65% | 9.30% | 2.84% | 2.39% | 4.12% | 2.23% | -2.01% | -3.49% | 10.63% | 0.93% | |
| Avg | 1.91% | 0.61% | -1.28% | 1.74% | 1.59% | 0.39% | 2.93% | 1.28% | -0.81% | 1.00% | 5.53% | 0.10% |
XIU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
XIU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XIU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
XIU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data