Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.91% | 7.65% | -4.36% | 3.83% | 2.23% | 0.80% | 1.26% | 3.06% | -2.65% | 1.69% | ||
| 2025 | 3.45% | -0.44% | -1.43% | -0.20% | 5.57% | 2.92% | 1.80% | 4.89% | 5.37% | 0.98% | 3.87% | 1.23% |
| 2024 | 0.57% | 1.73% | 4.18% | -1.78% | 2.71% | -1.41% | 5.80% | 1.17% | 3.14% | 0.89% | 6.38% | -3.27% |
| 2023 | 7.37% | -2.45% | -0.23% | 2.91% | -4.90% | 3.32% | 2.53% | -1.28% | -3.37% | -3.19% | 7.49% | 3.89% |
| 2022 | -0.36% | 0.27% | 4.09% | -5.02% | 0.03% | -8.66% | 4.67% | -1.72% | -4.26% | 5.57% | 5.50% | -4.85% |
| 2021 | -0.07% | 4.01% | 4.00% | 2.42% | 3.48% | 2.45% | 0.81% | 1.55% | -2.23% | 5.05% | -1.49% | 1.49% |
| 2020 | -5.83% | -17.69% | 11.24% | 2.76% | 2.67% | 4.38% | 2.29% | -1.97% | -3.05% | 10.77% | 1.41% | |
| Avg | 1.98% | 0.71% | -1.64% | 1.91% | 1.70% | 0.30% | 3.03% | 1.42% | -0.85% | 1.04% | 5.42% | -0.01% |
XIC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XIC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XIC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XIC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes