Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +3.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
XEF.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.19% | 4.74% | -6.27% | 3.29% | 4.09% | 2.96% | 0.41% | 0.96% | -0.81% | -2.90% | ||
| 2025 | 5.50% | 2.31% | -0.44% | -0.42% | 4.62% | 1.84% | 0.00% | 3.35% | 3.40% | 1.81% | 0.52% | 0.81% |
| 2024 | 0.75% | 3.63% | 3.17% | -1.61% | 3.94% | -1.52% | 3.67% | 0.78% | 1.16% | -2.30% | 0.50% | -0.49% |
| 2023 | 6.97% | -0.54% | 1.64% | 3.07% | -3.71% | 1.67% | 2.23% | -1.39% | -3.05% | -1.36% | 6.03% | 3.29% |
| 2022 | -3.71% | -3.32% | -1.19% | -4.06% | 0.16% | -7.26% | 4.72% | -3.67% | -4.92% | 4.37% | 11.19% | -0.84% |
| 2021 | -0.40% | 1.96% | 1.14% | 0.65% | 1.98% | 1.04% | 1.57% | 2.74% | -3.11% | 0.89% | -1.62% | 3.24% |
| 2020 | -6.93% | -9.99% | 5.17% | 4.51% | 1.74% | 0.24% | 2.97% | 0.00% | -3.29% | 11.21% | 3.19% | |
| Avg | 2.22% | 0.26% | -1.71% | 0.87% | 2.23% | 0.07% | 1.83% | 0.82% | -1.05% | 0.02% | 4.64% | 1.53% |
XEF.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XEF.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XEF.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes