Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +3.7% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.04% | 5.77% | -7.17% | 9.84% | 8.31% | 2.51% | -7.35% | 4.22% | 2.07% | -8.32% | ||
| 2025 | 2.47% | -0.20% | 0.30% | -3.24% | 4.11% | 5.92% | 2.44% | 1.95% | 7.52% | 4.45% | -2.08% | 0.08% |
| 2024 | -2.42% | 5.24% | 2.09% | 2.31% | 0.76% | 2.88% | 1.55% | -1.50% | 5.65% | -0.50% | -1.58% | 0.92% |
| 2023 | 6.63% | -4.36% | 1.90% | -0.12% | -1.75% | 1.60% | 5.71% | -3.70% | -2.39% | -1.65% | 5.72% | 0.82% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | -4.29% | -4.16% | -3.26% | -1.12% | -4.06% | -0.58% | 1.41% | -6.70% | -2.89% | 13.35% | -2.10% |
| 2021 | 3.38% | 0.89% | -1.78% | -0.75% | 1.00% | 2.94% | -5.12% | 2.54% | -3.18% | -1.53% | -0.25% | 0.46% |
| 2020 | -2.40% | -12.86% | 6.38% | 2.61% | 4.92% | 6.65% | 0.83% | 0.89% | 1.37% | 6.88% | 4.80% | |
| Avg | 2.85% | 0.09% | -3.10% | 1.59% | 1.99% | 2.39% | 0.47% | 0.82% | 0.55% | -0.12% | 3.67% | 0.83% |
XEC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XEC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XEC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XEC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes